The debate surrounding turnout persists this polling season, with Phase 3 recording a polling percentage of 64.6%, which is 1.7% lower than 2019. In Phase 1 and 2, the decline in turnout ranged between 3% and 4%.
While there is no clear correlation between turnouts and electoral outcomes, various theories are circulating. Out of 17 Lok Sabha elections from 1951-52 to 2019, turnout decreased six times and increased 10 times in 16 Lok Sabha elections from 1957 to 2019.
Out of the 10 instances where turnout increased, the incumbent lost four times and won six times. Conversely, out of the six instances where turnout declined, the incumbent lost four times and won two times.
Among the 10 states and two Union Territories that went to polls, only three – Chhattisgarh, Goa, and Karnataka – recorded an increase in turnout compared to 2019. Assam, Chhattisgarh, Dadra & Nagar Haveli, Daman & Diu, Goa, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, and West Bengal have recorded higher turnouts than the overall average.
Trends In Hindi Heartland
The Hindi heartland states of Uttar Pradesh (-2.5 percentage points, or p.p.), Madhya Pradesh (-0.6 p.p.), and Bihar (-3.1 p.p.) appear to be dragging down the overall turnout. Although Madhya Pradesh’s numbers look better in this phase, these states have consistently recorded lower turnout in all phases. The unexpected inclusion in this group, joining hands with the Hindi heartland states to lower the overall turnout, are the industrialised states of Gujarat and Maharashtra.
While scorching heat, lack of enthusiasm among both ruling party and opposition camps, voter fatigue and urban apathy are some of the reasons for a lower turnout, each state has a different story to tell.
Assam has recorded brisk voting, though there is a decline of 3.4%, largely due to the higher base. Similarly, West Bengal has consistently recorded high voting of over 75% in all three phases, and the decline could be largely attributed to the base effect here as well.
Bihar continues to record a lower turnout, in fact, among the lowest in all three phases. Janata Dal (United) (JD-U) candidates were in the fray in three of the five seats. It seems Nitish Kumar’s constant flip-flops have caused discontent among a section of his core voters. It may also be the case that Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) voters are not coming out wholeheartedly to support JDU candidates.
Notably, both Uttar Pradesh and Bihar also record lower turnouts in state polls and migration is one of the reasons for the same.
Gujarat’s Lower Numbers
In Gujarat, the home turf of the Prime Minister and the Union Home Minister, the turnout was lower than in 2019 by 3.1 p.p. Gujarat has a history of lower turnouts in state elections of 2017 and 2022. Here, the near-complete demolition of the Congress party’s organisational structure may have led to demotivation among opposition supporters, resulting in a lower turnout. Additionally, some opposition voters may not wish to vote against the Prime Minister and the Home Minister, both local heroes who are leading the nation in the name of Gujarati pride.
In Madhya Pradesh, the decline is marginal and can be ignored. However, in Maharashtra, the decline of 2.5 p.p. is intriguing. Baramati, which is facing a Pawar versus Pawar battle, recorded one of the lowest turnouts across the 93 seats, at only 56.1%.
The INDIA bloc has high hopes for Maharashtra as they believe Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar could enjoy a sympathy factor after the alleged ‘Operation Lotus’ against their parties. However, the numbers are not encouraging, indicating a lack of enthusiasm and apathy. Parties changing partners, dishonouring mandates, and the constant flip-flops of leaders may have kept some people out of the political process. Also, there is confusion among a section of voters regarding future realignments. Will Uddhav come back to the National Democratic Alliance (NDA)? Will Ajit Pawar go back to the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) or the INDIA bloc? All these possibilities cannot be ruled out in a state that has seen it all.
What’s Keeping UP Voters Away?
Uttar Pradesh continues to record a lower turnout, among the lowest in all three phases. A perceived done deal might be keeping opposition voters out, or complacency might be creeping in among BJP supporters/cadre. Are Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) supporters not coming out to vote, as Mayawati contesting alone has no chance? Is the alliance with the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) not working on the ground? The relative turnout of community groups is also important in the state. Both BJP and Congress have put up 20-25% candidates who were earlier in other parties. Are party workers not wholeheartedly working for these newbies? Turnout is a complex phenomenon to decipher.
Some analysts have argued that since the voter base has increased by around 8 crore, a lower turnout also results in a higher number of votes cast (in absolute terms). They also cite a high base effect, with a high turnout in 2019 given the strong nationalism fervour back then.
However, it’s also intriguing that states that witnessed turnouts of 70-75% in assembly polls in December 2023 are recording a decline of 5-10 p.p. in Lok Sabha polls.
(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
