The Southwest monsoon officially arrived in India on Thursday, June 4, marking its onset in Kerala, days after the Indian Meteorological Department predicted its arrival. Notably, this year’s monsoon was delayed by three days, since it generally starts by June 1.
Although the rainy season, from June to September, is predicted to experience below-normal rainfall, it finally arrived in Kerala with heavy rains, marking a much-needed relief. The southwest monsoon is expected to take a week to travel northwards from Kerala into Telangana.
Previously, on June 2, IMD Hyderabad had issued a thunderstorm warning, predicting four days of rain till June 5. The IMD announced a dip in heatwave alerts across the state, noting that temperatures have begun to decline.
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Regarding the three-day delay, the IMD said it falls within the standard deviation. “The Southwest Monsoon is delayed by three days as the normal date of onset of monsoon over Kerala is June 1 with a standard deviation of seven days. Thus, the delay by three days is within the standard deviation,” said Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director of Meteorology.
Conditions favourable for further advance
The conditions are believed to be favourable for an advance of the southwest monsoon into parts of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Goa and central Arabian Sea. The monsoon will likely progress to parts of Karnataka, the remaining parts of Tamil Nadu, the Southwest Bay of Bengal, and parts of the northeastern states over the next two weeks.
“The southwest monsoon has further advanced into the remaining parts of southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, some parts of westcentral and eastcentral Arabian Sea, entire Lakshadweep islands, Kerala and Mahe, some parts of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, remaining parts of Comorin area, southeast Bay of Bengal and some more parts of southwest, westcentral, eastcentral and northeast Bay of Bengal today the 4th June, 2026,” the IMD said.
Below-normal seasonal rainfall
Last week, the department revised its forecast for seasonal rainfall, indicating that it would be below normal.
The IMD expects rainfall in India to be around 90% of the long-period average (LPA) this year.
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The LPA refers to the rainfall recorded in a specific region over a defined period, such as a month or season, averaged over a long duration, typically 30 to 50 years.
The long-period average (LPA) of seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is 87 cm. If the monsoon season sees less than 90 pc of LPA rainfall, the IMD classifies it as ‘deficient’.
One reason behind the below-normal rainfall could be the emergence of El Nino conditions, which lead to less rain during the monsoon in the country.
Currently, neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions are transitioning towards El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific region.
The IMD said that El Nino conditions are likely to be weak in June, and moderate to strong in September.
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