Series Preview: Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins

With that terrible road trip in the rearview mirror, the Mariners return to Seattle for the longest homestand of the season. At four games under .500, they’re a game away from matching their season’s nadir — they were five games under on April 17. That makes this series against the Twins all the more important. It’s very possible the direction of the ballclub ahead of Monday’s trade deadline will be determined by how the team performs in Friday’s and Saturday’s games. That the Twins are a direct rival in the Wild Card race makes this a critical series if the M’s still want to make any noise in the playoff race this summer.

The Twins are surprisingly in the mix in the AL playoff picture, a year after their dramatic tear down last summer. They’ve been playing so well, they’re expecting to be buyers ahead of the trade deadline on Monday. A dramatic walk-off win on Thursday — Kody Clemens hit a grand slam with two outs and two strikes to win the game — gave Minnesota a series win over the Royals and pushed their record back to .500. The team is now just three games back in the AL Central and a game behind the Guardians for the final spot in the AL Wild Card race.

A nagging hip injury has forced Byron Buxton to the IL for the second time this month, and his absence puts a lot of pressure on the rest of the lineup to continue producing without the team’s superstar carrying the load. Ryan Jeffers recently returned from a hamate bone fracture and he’s now the team’s best hitter with a 160 wRC+. Both Trevor Larnach (133 wRC+) and Kody Clemens (116 wRC+) are in the midst of their best seasons at the plate. Former top prospect Royce Lewis has been mostly healthy this year, though he spent a month in Triple-A for a quick reset after getting off to a really rough start to the season; he’s posted a 114 wRC+ since returning from the minors.

Zebby Matthews has had an up-and-down introduction to the big leagues the past two years. During his debut season in 2024, he featured a fantastic strikeout-to-walk ratio but was undone by a ton of home runs allowed. Last year, he got his dinger problem under control, but his ERA shot up to 5.56 anyway, nearly two runs higher than his FIP. This season, his strikeout-to-walk ratio has gone backwards and he’s allowing a bunch of home runs again. That’s not what you want to see. His two breaking balls are still solid pitches, but he’s grooving far too many of his fastballs to really be successful.

From a previous series preview:

Entering the season, Connor Prielipp was the Twins’ top ranked pitching prospect and their third overall prospect. A pair of serious elbow injuries — one in college in 2021 and one in the minors in ‘23 — have curtailed his development somewhat, but his raw stuff has continued to look dominant. His best pitch is a superb slider that features tight, downward movement and higher than average velocity. His fastball is fine — it’s the pitch he can command the best at the moment — and his changeup has flashed some promise, though he has trouble with his feel for that offspeed pitch.

Due to the aforementioned injuries, the Twins have been extremely careful with Prielipp this year. He spent a few weeks on the IL in July and they’ve been giving him extra rest days whenever they can afford it. His breaking balls have looked like excellent weapons in the majors, but his fastball has been knocked around a bit. In the second start of his career back in April, he held the Mariners to two runs in five innings, striking out five.

From a previous series preview:

The Twins acquired Taj Bradley from the Rays last summer in a deal that has turned out to be somewhat of a coup. Back in 2023, Bradley was one of the most highly regarded pitching prospects in baseball, but he struggled to harness his impressive raw stuff across his first three seasons in the big leagues. Tampa Bay cut bait on him, and he continued to struggle in Minnesota after the trade, but he’s managed to put everything together this season. The biggest difference for him has been small adjustments to his cutter and splitter to differentiate those pitches from his fastball. His cutter is breaking glove side a little more and his splitter is diving out of the zone more often. With an extremely high arm slot and an arsenal that heavily relies on vertical movement, those small changes have had a huge impact on his results on the mound.

Bradley has continued his breakout season, posting career-bests in ERA and FIP and he’s already matched his career-high in fWAR. Against the Mariners back in April, he allowed two runs in seven innings while striking out seven.

The thing that makes the Mariners’ struggles simultaneously more frustrating and more forgiving is that the Rangers aren’t exactly running away with the division. Texas lost its series to the Rays earlier this week, dropping the team to just a game over .500. Meanwhile, the Astros have won eight of their last nine games and have climbed back to .500, half a game back in the division. The two Texas teams face each other this weekend in Houston.