Allan Lichtman, often dubbed the “Nostradamus of US presidential elections,” has garnered a reputation for his uncanny ability to predict election outcomes. With a track record of accurately foreseeing nine out of the past ten US presidential elections, Mr Lichtman’s methodology has earned him both acclaim and scrutiny.
To accurately predict who will occupy the Oval Office, Mr Lichtman has designed what he calls “13 keys to the White House,” a groundbreaking method that revolutionised election forecasting.
The keys, comprising a series of true or false questions, assess various factors, including economic performance, social stability, and incumbent charisma. Through careful analysis spanning historical data since Abraham Lincoln’s era, Mr Lichtman has crafted a predictive model that transcends conventional methods used by traditional psephologists.
“I have not made a final prediction yet but I do have a model for 13 keys to the White House which have been correct since 1984 – 10 elections in a row – and the way it works is if six or more of the 13 keys go against the White House party (incumbent) they are predicted losers and if fewer than six then they are predicted winners,” Mr Lichtman told NDTV. “Right now a lot would have to go wrong for Joe Biden to lose this election. He’s at the moment down by just two keys.”
Biden is expected to be challenged for a second time by Donald Trump who is increasingly likely to be the Republican party’s face for the 2024 US Presidential elections scheduled for November. With Biden enjoying the advantages of incumbency and a relatively uncontested primary, Mr Lichtman sees formidable odds for his challenger.
What Are The 13 Keys?
Despite initial skepticism from the forecasting community, Mr Lichtman’s methodology proved its worth time and again. From Ronald Reagan’s re-election triumph amid economic recession to Bill Clinton’s victory against George HW Bush, Mr Lichtman correctly predicted crucial poll contests in the US.
The 13 keys to the White House as designed by Mr Lichtman are as follows:
Party Mandate: Post-midterm elections, the incumbent party secures more US House of Representatives seats than in the previous midterms.
Nomination Contest: There’s no significant challenge to the incumbent party’s nomination.
Incumbency: The sitting president represents the incumbent party.
Third-party Factor: There’s no noteworthy third-party or independent campaign.
Short-term Economic Stability: The economy doesn’t face recession during the election period.
Long-term Economic Growth: Real per capita economic growth equals or surpasses the average growth of the preceding two terms.
Policy Shift: The incumbent administration enacts major alterations in national policy.
Social Stability: There’s no prolonged social unrest throughout the term.
Scandal-Free: The incumbent administration remains free from major scandals.
Foreign/Military Mishaps: No significant failures occur in foreign or military affairs under the incumbent administration.
Foreign/Military Triumphs: The incumbent administration achieves significant successes in foreign or military matters.
Incumbent Charm: The incumbent party’s candidate possesses charisma or enjoys national hero status.
Challenger Appeal: The opposing party’s candidate lacks charisma or national hero status.
Biden vs Trump
US voters see Trump as more favourable for the economy compared to President Biden, as indicated by a recent Reuters/Ipsos survey. In this three-day poll, 41 per cent of participants favoured Trump’s economic approach over Biden’s, while 34 per cent favored Biden’s. The remaining respondents either expressed uncertainty or felt neither candidate had a superior stance.
However, Mr Lichtman said that early polls should be taken with a pinch of salt.
“Early polls have zero predictive value. They are momentary snapshots. for example, they say, ‘If the elections were held today, this is where the candidates stand’ – but the election is not being held today so polls are of not of any value for prediction. Early polls often lead you astray,” Mr Lichtman told NDTV
“As we saw in 2016 when I had predicted Donald Trump’s victory contrary to the polls. Or in 1988, when George H W Bush as late as May and June of the election year was 17 points behind his opponent Mike Dukakis and went on to win with a 25-point swing. That’s why I tell everyone, to get the polls, to get the pundits keep your eye on the big picture as gauged by the keys,” he added.
Mr Lichtman’s predictive prowess faced its most significant test in the tumultuous 2000 election between Al Gore and George W Bush. While he forecasted a victory for Gore, the controversial outcome cast a shadow over his prediction.
