Four-time Grand Slam winner Naomi Osaka knocked off No. 1-ranked Aryna Sabalenka in the fourth round of Wimbledon on Sunday, setting up a quarterfinal date with No. 10 Karolina Muchova.
This is the seventh meeting between Osaka and Muchova in their careers, and they’ve split the first six 3-3, with Osaka taking home two of the three matches in Grand Slams.
The No. 14-ranked player in the world, Osaka had never made it past the third round at Wimbledon until this year’s tournament, and she’s done it in dominant fashion. The 28-year-old has not lost a single set, and oddsmakers actually have her set as a slight favorite on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, Muchova is back in the quarterfinals at Wimbledon for the first time since 2021 after four straight first-round exits. Which of these two stars will take advantage of their run in 2026 with a trip to the semis on the line?
Let’s dive right into the odds, each player’s path at this tournament and my prediction for this quarterfinal match.
Naomi Osaka vs. Karolína Muchová Odds and Total
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Moneyline
- Naomi Osaka: -121
- Karolína Muchová: +100
Total
- 23.5 (Over -115/Under -130)
Naomi Osaka vs. Karolína Muchová How to Watch
- Date: Tuesday, July 7
- Time: 10:00 a.m. EST
- How to Watch (TV): ESPN/ESPN Unlimited
Naomi Osaka vs. Karolína Muchová History and Wimbledon Performance
Naomi Osaka
A four-time Grand Slam winner, Osaka doesn’t have nearly as much success on grass in her career as she does on hard surfaces, but that appears to have changed at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club in 2026.
The 28-year-old had never made it past the third round at Wimbledon, but she’s through to the quarterfinals after upsetting Sabalenka in Round 4.
Osaka has not dropped a set in this tournament, and she has only been forced to one tiebreak (against Sabalenka). There’s no doubt that she’s finding her peak form, which makes this a very intriguing matchup.
Osaka and Muchova are 3-3 against each other all time, though Muchova won the last meeting in 2026 at the Bad Homburg Open after Osaka was forced to retire in the second set. That’s the last time these two matched up on grass.
There is a ton of Grand Slam history between Osaka and Muchova, as Osaka won in the 2025 Australian Open and 2025 U.S. Open while Muchova took a match in the 2024 U.S. Open.
Karolína Muchová
Muchova made the quarterfinals at Wimbledon in 2019 and 2021, but she was a first-round exit in each of the last four years. So, this quarterfinal run is a major step forward for the 29-year-old as she aims to get back to a Grand Slam semifinal for the first time since the 2024 U.S. Open.
Muchova won her first three matches in straight sets before going the distance against Barbora Krejčíková in Round 4, winning 7-5, 5-7, 6-3. Her win over Osaka at the Bad Homburg Open is certainly intriguing when it comes to this match, as it’s the only time the two matched up on grass and Muchova dominated the first set 6-1 before Osaka was forced to retire.
Naomi Osaka vs. Karolína Muchová Prediction and Pick
There are definitely some concerns with Osaka’s play on grass – especially since Muchova handled her once already this year – but I can’t look past what she’s done through four rounds in this tournament.
Osaka cruised through the first three rounds, and she then beat Sabalenka 6-2, 7-6 on Sunday, an exclamation point on her play since she really returned to the national stage in 2024.
There’s no doubt that Osaka can win this tournament, and Muchova hasn’t exactly fared all that well at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club in recent years.
Both of these players are winning at least 75 percent of their service games in 2026, but Osaka has been terrific during return games, winning over 47 percent of her break points.
There may be some value in getting Muchova as an underdog on grass, but I can’t bring myself to fade Osaka after she knocked off the No. 1-ranked player in such dominant fashion.
I think there’s a real argument that this is Osaka’s tournament to lose, and I’ll take her to advance to the semifinals.
Pick: Osaka Moneyline (-121 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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