Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be in Poland and Ukraine this week. Both visits are historic in their own ways: for Poland, this will be the first visit by an Indian Prime Minister in 45 years, while for Ukraine, Modi”s will be the first-ever visit by an Indian Prime Minister. Where Modi has talked about India and Poland’s “mutual commitment to democracy and pluralism” reinforcing the bilateral relationship, he has expressed “hope for an early return of peace and stability” in Ukraine.
Often, China and India are put in the same bracket when it comes to their response to the Ukraine war. But Modi’s visit to the country, which follows his much-controversial trip to Russia last month, is why the world shouldn’t compare them.
India Is More Than Just A Mediator In Europe
Modi’s visit to Russia last month raised a lot of eyebrows as it was also his first visit abroad in his third term. There is now talk of India becoming a potential peacemaker in the Russia-Ukraine war. But that is missing the woods for the trees. Modi will be in Ukraine to underline that New Delhi’s position on the war remains consistent. Despite close ties with Russia and its decision not to publicly call out Russia as an aggressor, New Delhi has always maintained that the sanctity of territorial integrity and sovereignty remains inviolable in international affairs, and that dialogue and diplomacy is the only way to a sustainable outcome.
Unlike China, Modi publicly told Putin during his visit to Moscow that this was not the era of war, and expressed pain at the death of children after a lethal strike by Russia on Kyiv’s main hospital for children. At that time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had denounced Modi for visiting Russia, calling the trip a “devastating blow to peace efforts”. But New Delhi has continued to maintain its ties with both Moscow and Kyiv throughout the course of the war over the last two and a half years, steadfast in its belief that both sides should be engaged if a lasting solution is to be found.
A Renewed Vision For Europe
Europe is facing a moment of reckoning with growing internal challenges, a widening regional divide, a war that shows no signs of ending, a rising China, calls for isolationism in the US, and a fracturing of the post-Cold War security arrangement. The end of the Ukraine war will perhaps lay the foundations of a new security order in Europe, but that end is nowhere in sight as both sides search for favourable battlefield realities that they can potentially leverage at the negotiating table. It is at this critical juncture that Europe has started looking at India as a key partner.
And New Delhi has reciprocated. India now views Europe as central to its developmental and strategic priorities. This is borne by the extraordinary diplomatic investment the Modi government has made in imparting momentum to its ties with Europe. What has been an evolving feature of this outreach is India’s attempts to engage with different sub-regions of Europe, allowing New Delhi to focus on their core strengths. It is Central Europe that is now the focus, with Modi visiting Austria last month followed by Poland and Ukraine now. The region has developed its own unique voice on European matters, and especially after the Russian invasion, it has been critical in shaping the larger European response to regional and global issues.
Why Poland Matters To New Delhi
As for Modi’s visit to Poland, it is among the fastest-growing economies in Europe and has been vocal about its strategic aspirations to see Europe emerge as a key geopolitical actor on the global stage. Warsaw’s role will also be critical in shaping the European security architecture once the embers of war in Ukraine cool down. Its location makes it a hub of connectivity across Europe, and India enjoys a lot of goodwill. If India is to move beyond France, Germany and the UK in its European imagination, then building strong economic ties with Poland will be critical. Modi’s visit should lay the foundation for a long-term sustainable partnership with Warsaw.
It is in New Delhi’s interest that a sustainable security architecture takes shape in Europe as European stability is critical for a globally engaged India with critical equities in that geography. New Delhi won’t be playing the mediator. Its eyes are on the larger horizon, where India’s emergence as a credible partner of Europe is seen as important for ensuring that its own developmental and strategic priorities remain insulated from wider disruption.
(Harsh V Pant is Vice-President for Studies at ORF)
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