With just three months to go for the US Presidential elections, Democratic nominee Kamala Harris has taken the lead over her Republican counterpart Donald Trump in three crucial swing states — Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
According to recent polls conducted by the New York Times and Siena College between August 5 and August 9, Harris leads Trump by four percentage points, with 50% to 46% support among the 1,973 registered voters across the three states.
The polls were conducted in the week Kamala Harris named Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota, as her running mate. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 4.8 percentage points in Michigan, plus or minus 4.2 points in Pennsylvania and plus or minus 4.3 points in Wisconsin.
This marks a shift from previous surveys that showed Donald Trump tied to or leading former Democratic candidate Joe Biden.
The US Vice President has taken the lead in these crucial battleground states since Biden endorsed her amid concerns about his cognitive well-being and fitness to govern. Much can change before the November 5 election, but Democrats are enthusiastic about Kamala Harris’ candidacy, relieved after President Biden stepped aside.
Ms Harris has seen a significant bump in favorability, up 10 points in Pennsylvania, with independent voters viewing her as more intelligent and temperamentally fit to govern.
The US electoral college voting system considers Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan crucial for Mr Harris to retain the White House. Despite Republican attacks, Democrats strongly support Harris, with voter satisfaction increasing by 27 points in the three Midwestern states since May.
However, Democrats need to better communicate Harris’s vision for the country. A previous poll found that 60% of registered voters think Trump has a clear vision, compared to 53% for Ms Harris.
Trump still leads on handling the economy and immigration. However, Harris has a 24-point advantage on abortion, which Democrats hope will mobilise voters in swing states like Arizona and Wisconsin.
Harris is viewed more favourably on democracy than Mr Trump, who is facing legal charges related to the 2020 presidential elections and the January 6 Capitol riots.
