During the entire election season, the BJP stood by its target of 400 Lok Sabha seats for the NDA and its slogan of ‘ab ki baar 400 paar’ in the face of relentless mocking by the opposition. If three exit polls are to be believed, the ruling party is going to have the last laugh.
While two of the polls have given ranges with figures of just over 400 on the upper end, News 24-Today’s Chanakya has predicted 400 as the NDA’s tally. The only rider this number comes with is that the margin of error is 15 seats. The figure then becomes 385 on the lower end and an astounding 415 on the upper side.
India TV-CNX has also given similar estimates and a range of 371-401, putting the NDA just over the mammoth target if it touches the upper limit of the range. India Today-Axis My India has predicted 361-401.
Health Warning: Exit polls often get it wrong.
The NDA’s tally was 352 in 2019 and the BJP had won 303 seats on its own. Prime Minister Narendra Modi will make history if he gets a third straight term and the party and the alliance’s leaders and election machinery will have shown their prowess if the NDA even gets the lowest end of these figures.
A tally of 361, the minimum figure predicted by India Today-Axis My India, will mean that the alliance has bettered its performance in each successive election, which would be a huge feat on its own and indicate that anti-incumbency is not much of a factor. It will also be a testament to PM Narendra Modi’s popularity.
The opposition INDIA Alliance, which said on Saturday that it will win 295 constituencies, has been given 107 (plus-minus 11) by Today’s Chanakya, 109-139 by CNX and 131-166 by Axis My India.
With its 80 Lok Sabha seats the most important state in every election is Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP had won 62 seats in 2019, when the Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party were in an alliance. The Samajwadi Party is now allied with the Congress and all three polls have the BJP bettering its tally in the state.
News 24-Today’s Chanakya’s prediction is 68 (plus-minus 7), India Today-Axis My India’s estimate is 67-72 and India TV-CNX has given the party 70-74.
All three polls show the NDA doing better than it did in the South in 2019. Another big headline from the three exit polls is also that the BJP will get more seats that the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal, with Axis My India going as far as giving 26-31 of the state’s 42 seats to the ruling party at the Centre.
