"Government Can't Undermine Public Dissent": Prashant Kishor Exclusive

1. Consistency could be boring, hence what I am going to tell you could sound boring to you. BJP and NDA will return to power with similar or better numbers.
2. If you see elections as a running commentary, you will look more like a day trader, and the situation of day traders is well-recorded.
3. Unless there is widespread anger or clamour for the rivals, I do not think a big change will be seen.
4. People might be disappointed with the BJP’s rule. But we have not heard of widespread anger against PM Modi.
5. There is no clamour for the challengers to the BJP.
6. BJP does not appear to be suffering any material damage in the west and north. BJP will get more seats, especially in states like Odisha, Telangana, Bihar, Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
7. If you see the Lok sabha results of the 2014 and 2019 elections, the poll pundits had predicted that BJP would not get more than 272 seats.
8. This time, the predictions started on an optimistic note. The BJP has shifted the goal from 272 deals to 370 seats. They have smartly shifted the bar, hence most strategists are predicting a win for the BJP.
9. When a company performs well but below expectations then the market punishes it. So if BJP gets less than 370 seats, it will become a talking point.
10. It is a good thing that we have a strong Opposition. Whoever forms the government, the party will face a strong Opposition. The party that wins has to be careful that they cannot undermine public dissent.
11. By the time INDIA alliance came into action, it was too late. The BJP had already covered the space it had lost.
12. The Opposition bloc did not act for months after announcing the alliance. They did not even announce a PM face. The public can see that they do not have a reliable face or strong narrative against the BJP.
13. The opposition could not capitalise thrice when the Modi government was on the back foot.
14. After Ram Mandir, the Opposition virtually laid down their arms. By the time they woke up again in February, it was too late.
15. No matter how much the Opposition tries, the public perception is that it has no clear, credible face.

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