With the final date for nominations closing in Haryana, frenzied campaigning has begun in the state, which will vote on October 5. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is grappling with a triple anti-incumbency situation and is fighting an uphill battle in an election where the Congress is considered the favourite to win.
Although trends in both Lok Sabha and assembly elections are not favourable for the BJP, the 2024 general elections demonstrate that no election in India is a foregone conclusion until the last vote is counted.
As of September 12, there were 1,745 candidates in the fray – about 20 per seat – with the final date for withdrawal set for September 16. The ticket distribution has sparked rebellion, particularly within the BJP, while the Congress has faced less dissent. Many candidates who were denied tickets have filed nominations as independents. The BJP has replaced 15 MLAs, while Congress has not re-nominated three.
With five main parties contesting – Congress, BJP, Indian National Lok Dal-Bahujan Samaj Party, Jannayak Janta Party-Azad Samaj Party, and Aam Aadmi Party-approximately 15 candidates from smaller parties and independents have filed their papers. Over the next few days, parties will attempt to persuade rebels to withdraw their nominations.
Haryana is experiencing several competing and parallel trends. No party has won a third consecutive term in the state since its inception in 1966. However, the BJP, which replaced its Chief Minister just before the general elections, has never lost an election when employing this strategy – evident in Gujarat, Uttarakhand, and Tripura.
The BJP faces anti-incumbency on three fronts: the central government, the state government and Chief Minister, and local MLAs.
The first level of anti-incumbency partially manifested in the general elections. Discontent among voters arose from the mishandling of farmers’ protests. 61% of farmers (up 20 percentage points, or pp) supported the INDIA bloc, with many belonging to the influential Jat community, exacerbating the party’s troubles.
Women were displeased with the BJP’s inaction against Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh despite sexual harassment charges by wrestlers. As many as 49% of women (up 20 pp) voted against the BJP. Notably, 20% of the Olympic team representing India in Paris hailed from Haryana.
Youth protests against the new Agniveer Scheme of the armed forces went unaddressed by the BJP. 11% of soldiers in the Indian army come from Haryana, and 47% of voters aged 18-25 years supported the INDIA bloc.
These issues led to significant losses for the BJP in Haryana. The party, which won all 10 seats in 2019, saw its tally dropping to five seats in 2024, with the Congress winning the other five. The BJP’s vote share decreased by 12 pp, while Congress gained 16 pp. The BJP led in 44 assembly segments (down 35 from 2019), while the INDIA bloc led in 46 (up 36).
State Level Anti-Incumbency
The second level of anti-incumbency is directed at the Chief Minister and state government. The BJP replaced Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar just six months before the state polls. Khattar was the face of the BJP’s anti-dominant caste politics strategy, which had previously succeeded in Maharashtra and Jharkhand after the 2014 victory.
However, the party nominated OBC Nayab Singh Saini instead of someone from the Jat community, failing to placate the influential caste. Haryana has one of the highest unemployment rates in India, according to CMIE, and an inflation rate of 4.12% for August 2024, compared to the all-India average of 3.65%. Unemployment and price rises were top issues in the 2024 general elections.
The Congress has criticised the BJP government for a significant rise in crime. The National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) report for 2022 shows a troubling 17.6% increase in criminal cases, totalling 2.43 lakh cases. Haryana, after Delhi, has the second-highest number of crimes against women in the country.
Local MLA Anti-Incumbency
The third level of anti-incumbency is against the local MLAs. In state elections, the local candidate is crucial, as 36% of voters considered this the primary factor in the 2014 state polls, according to a CSDS post-poll study.
To address this, the BJP has dropped 15 MLAs and changed the seats for three others, including the Chief Minister, resulting in a 37% denial/replacement ratio. New candidates have been fielded in 57 seats, nearly two-thirds of the assembly, to dilute local anti-incumbency.
Haryana has a history of punishing incumbent MLAs. In the 2019 state elections, the BJP repeated 34 of its 47 sitting MLAs, and half of them lost. The Congress repeated all its MLAs, with half also losing. Out of the 49 repeated MLAs by Congress and BJP, half lost their elections.
Another worrisome trend for the BJP is its tendency to lose seats and vote share in state elections held after general elections. In Haryana, BJP led in 52 assembly segments in the 2014 general elections, which dropped to 47 in the state polls held six months later. In 2019, the party led in 79 assembly segments, which fell to 40 in the state polls. Its Lok Sabha vote share of 58% reduced to 37% in state polls.
The Congress is currently favoured to win Haryana according to initial surveys. However, with elections becoming increasingly complex and pollsters having struggled in both the 2023 state and 2024 general elections, no election in India is a sure thing until the last vote is counted. BJP supporters hope for an upset similar to the 2023 results in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh or a hung verdict due to smaller parties’ influence. A fascinating contest is on the horizon.
(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author